Writing from Pacific Safety Group on ocean rescue, coastal hazards, water safety and the conditions that shape them on the Southern California coast.
El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance).NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.
Ventura County beaches, the Santa Barbara south coast, Malibu and the inner coastal waters. Updated every time this page loads.
Checking the National Weather Service…
Source: NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard. For emergencies call 9-1-1. Always check with the on-duty lifeguard before entering the water.
NOAA's tide gauges show Southern California sea level sitting about a foot above the tide tables this week. Here is what the "massive Kelvin wave" is, where it is, what it does to a beach, and what it does not do, drawn only from NOAA, NASA and the National Weather Service.
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A very strong event is now near-certain. Whether it delivers the winter people are expecting is a separate question, and the honest answer, drawn from seventy-five years of data, is more interesting than the headline.
Read the articleReporting, official statements and research worth your time.
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