Articles

Field notes & analysis

Writing from Pacific Safety Group on ocean rescue, coastal hazards, water safety and the conditions that shape them on the Southern California coast.

ENSO Analysis

The 2026–27 El Niño: what the record actually shows

A very strong event is now near-certain. Whether it delivers the winter people are expecting is a separate question, and the honest answer, drawn from seventy-five years of data, is more interesting than the headline.

Daniel J. Nahmias · 7 September 2026 · 9 min read

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